International Journal of STD & AIDS > Volume 16, Number 8 > Pp. 560-570

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Original Research Article

Impact of an effective multidrug-resistant tuberculosis control programme in the setting of an immature HIV epidemic: system dynamics simulation model

Rifat A Atun, Reda Lebcir, Francis Drobniewski and Richard J Coker

Centre for Health Management, The Business School, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, UK; Centre for Health Management, The Business School, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, UK; Department of Microbiology and Infection, King's College, Denmark Hill, London, UK; Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK

This study sought to determine the impact of an effective programme of multidrug resistant tuberculosis control (MDRTB) on a population that is witnessing an explosive HIV epidemic among injecting drug users (IDUs), where the prevalence of MDRTB is already high. A transmission model was constructed that represents the dynamics of the drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DSTB), MDRTB and HIV spread among the adult population of Samara Oblast, Russia: from official notifications of tuberculosis and of HIV infection, estimates of MDRTB derived from surveillance studies, population data from official regional statistics, data on transmission probabilities from peer-reviewed publications and informed estimates, and policy-makers' estimates of IDU populations.

Two scenarios of programme effectiveness for MDRTB were modelled and run over a period of 10 years to predict cumulative deaths. In a population of 3.3 million with a high prevalence of MDRTB, an emerging epidemic of HIV among IDUs, and a functioning directly observed therapy-short course (DOTS) programme, the model predicts that under low cure rates for MDRTB the expected cumulative deaths from tuberculosis will reach 6303 deaths including 1900 deaths from MDRTB at 10 years. Under high cure rate for MDRTB 4465 deaths will occur including 134 deaths from MDRTB. At 10 years there is little impact on HIV-infected populations from the MDRTB epidemic, but as the HIV epidemic matures the impact becomes substantial. When the model is extended to 20 years cumulative deaths from MDRTB become very high if cure rates for MDRTB are low and cumulative deaths in the HIV-infected population, likewise, are profoundly affected.

In the presence of an immature HIV epidemic failure to actively control MDRTB may result in approximately a third more deaths than if effective treatment is given. As the HIV epidemic matures then the impact of MDRTB grows substantially if MDRTB control strategies are ineffective. The epidemiological starting point for these scenarios is present in many regions within the former Soviet Union and this analysis suggests control of MDRTB should be an urgent priority.

Key Words: HIV • TUBERCULOSIS • MULTIDRUG-RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS • RUSSIA • SYSTEM DYNAMICS • TRANSMISSION MODEL

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